Saturday, November 17, 2018

Nigeria Earns Tie and Qualifies for AFCON 2019

Nigeria earned a deserved 1-1 tie with South Africa in Johannesburg, earlier today, to reach the African Cup of Nations finals for 2019. Despite missing several starters, due to suspension and injuries, Nigeria made its way to the finals for the first time since it took the trophy in 2013.

Also for the first time, Gernot Rohr, out of necessity offered his rarely used 3-5-2 against an African opposition. However, his plans to soak up the midfield by adding an additional player in the absence of regulars, who ordinarily would have strutted out in midfield, met with very little success. It did create opportunities in quick breakaways especially early in the game when Ahmed Musa threatened to be a handful for the South African defense. Besides those moments, the midfield was dominated by South Africans who bossed the space with 57% possession.

But for all South Africa's huffing and puffing, it was Nigeria that had the much better opportunities.  this seems to be the frequent case in Nigeria v South Africa games. But in this game, Nigeria will rue two controversial calls that perhaps denied them victory. Musa had sped past the defense in the 7th minute, off an Iheanacho pass, but was wrongly ruled offsides as the television replays showed. Then with eight minutes left on the day, it appeared that Musa had scored off an Iwobi pass but again the goal was overruled as offsides in an extremely close situation.

Nevertheless, the reality was that South Africa's Percy Tau (10) was giving Nigeria's defense fits with his technique, quick turns, and decision making. It was he who turned Omeruo and Ekong to finish with an exquisite pass that tied the game after Nigeria had gone ahead in the opening half. Clearly the best player on the day, in the second half he turned his attention to terrorizing Nigeria's defense on both the right and left side and on a second half move he exchanged passes easily, eliminating both Balogun and Ekong, but Ezenwa rushed out to save the day (69th). 

The rating for Nigeria's team on the day is provided below:

Ikechukwu Ezenwa (1) -- 6.2 -- He was hardly troubled all day as the defense did well to keep South Africa off serious opportunities. He conceded the only goal to the home team in a situation that no goalie could have solved with his defense in tatters.

Leon Balogun (6) -- 6.2 -- Balogun had a strong game but nothing spectacular. He survived a hold that could have led to a dangerous free kick near the box in the second half.

William Ekong (5) -- 6.2 -- This was not an eventful day for Ekong. Although, he was also turned in the spectacular South African goal but otherwise he had a quiet day in the office.

Kenneth Omeruo (22) -- 6.3 -- Omeruo was embarrassed by a Percy Tau turn that led to South Africa's goal. Otherwise, he had a strong but eventful day chasing the dangerous Tau. He missed a good opportunity to put Nigeria ahead from a Kalu set piece with an unchallenged header deep inside the box (75th).

Samuel Kalu (17) -- 6.4 -- Kalu had a reasonably good game playing wing back and made a last ditch sliding save early and it was his powerful cross that forced South Africa to concede the own goal that put Nigeria ahead.

John Ogu (19) -- 6.5 -- Ogu was calm and sprayed passes with far more accuracy than any of his midfield colleagues. However, his lack of significant mobility meant that Nigeria could never compensate for the absence of both Onazi and Ndidi.

Oghenekaro Etebo (8) -- 6.2 -- Etebo is a busy bee type of player but sometimes his decision making can be questionable and that was the case today. He never really imposed himself on this game.

Alex Iwobi (18) -- 6.4 -- This was not his best game by far. He probably turned the ball over more than any of the Nigerian players and sometimes with very little pressure. At times,  he was lively but that was only in periodic spurts. However, Rohr's confidence in him may have kept him on for almost the entire game when a substitution may have been a good option. Perhaps, the failure to do this underlined how thin Nigeria is at his position.

Jamilu Collins (3) -- 6.2 -- Jamilu did reasonably well both defensively and offensively but he had difficulties, at times, attempting to keep in check Tau on the wide right.

Kelechi Iheanacho (14) -- 6.0 -- Kelechi was slow and is perhaps getting slower. He had a gilt-edged opportunity off a pass from Musa, in the opening half, that he spurned because of a poor touch that led to a turnover. He was correctly taken off midway into the second half.

Ahmed Musa (cpt-7) -- 6.8 -- Although he faded in the second half because of tiredness, Musa was a handful for the South Africans much of the first half. One thing about this player that has been greatly underestimated is his penchant for making passes that lead to goals. Today, Iheanacho could have been a beneficiary of one of such passes.

Isaac Success (13) -- 6.0 -- Isaac was anonymous most of his 22 minutes on the field and did not impact the game.

Henry Onyekuru (11) and Semi Ajayi (20) because of less than a quarter of an hour in the game.

Tuesday, November 6, 2018

With Uzoho Absent, Who Protects Nigeria's Goal?

It seems ages ago when Nigerians did not blink because a regular goalkeeper was injured. That was back during the era that Nigeria's three choices -- Vincent Enyeama, Augustine Ejide, and Dele Aiyenugba -- were all of international standard and each of them could be counted on to do a masterful job. However, that is now ages ago. Today, even the regular goalkeeper -- Francis Uzoho -- does not instill much confidence among Nigerian fans. This is in spite of the fact that Uzoho has clearly improved from his low point recorded during his first few games for Nigeria.

But with Uzoho ruled unavailable (due to injury) for a crucial AFCON qualifier in a few days in South Africa, the question about who replaces him is now critical. There are three goalkeepers invited for the contest -- Ikechukwu Ezenwa, Daniel Akpeyi, and Theophilus Afelokhai. In the paragraphs below, we share our views of each of them.

Ikechukwu Ezenwa
Ezenwa is Nigeria's second choice between the posts going by recent events. He was the man who stood in for Uzoho in a recent international in Monrovia (v Liberia) when Uzoho was unavailable. Ezenwa was third choice after Carl Ikeme exited the team on account of illness back in 2016 but Ezenwa soon rose to first choice after Akpeyi's poor performance. Ezenwa was often spectacular in the 2018 World Cup qualifying games against Cameroon but his poor play thereafter opened the door to Uzoho. Ezenwa has the most appearances (26 apps/conceding 0.46 per game) among the three goalkeepers available for the South African game largely because he is first choice for the home-based national team. On his good day, Ezenwa is a good shot stopper but struggles with crosses and can be rash with last ditch tackles against attackers that break through his defense. More troubling at this point is that he is not first choice at his club where he sits on the bench as No. 3 behind both Afelokhai and Fatau Dauda at Enyimba. His lack of match fitness could cost him the opportunity to start in South Africa if Coach Rohr maintains his outspoken believe that only match fit players should play in important games.

Daniel Akpeyi
Akpeyi is, perhaps, the most derided Nigerian player in recent memory. His antagonists are, arguably, overboard in their assessments of Akpeyi who continues to be a key player for his club -- Chippa United in South Africa. But Akpeyi's demeanor in goal, his frequent errors, as well as indecisiveness in cutting off crosses give his antagonists fuel for criticism. Worse still, Akpeyi has a statistic that sticks out like a sore thumb for Nigeria. In 10 games, Akpeyi is still to complete a game without conceding at least a goal (1.25 per game). Those are considered telling! He was considered unquestioned Nigeria's No. 2 goalkeeper behind Ikeme from 2015 to 2016. If Akpeyi had held his own end of the bargain after Ikeme fell ill in 2016, Akpeyi would have been Nigeria's No. 1 choice today. But he failed to do so. Now he is battling to keep a No. 3 spot, behind both Uzoho and Ezenwa. However, as fate would have it, he is again dealt with gold coins on the table. At familiar turf in South Africa and with match fitness in his favor, he is possibly the front runner to be between the posts for this upcoming game v South Africa. If Rohr calls his name as starter, would he engrave his name as No. 2 choice going forward? That is on the cards in South Africa. 

Theophilus Afelokhai
Afelokhai is no spring chicken. He has been a top local goalkeeper for more than a decade in Nigeria with a famed tenure at Kano Pillars. Though he is yet to make an official appearance for Nigeria, he is still considered one of the best at the local scene and has become the first choice at Enyimba where Ike Ezenwa sits on the bench. His match fitness should be a strength going into the South African game but Akpeyi has match fitness as well. Importantly, coach Rohr has his only principles which he appears to hold onto religiously. One of those principles is his belief that a foreign-based player, more often than not, is better than a Nigerian-based player.  This is perhaps one unstated reason why Uzoho, with very few first team appearances at his club, was catapulted to Nigeria's first choice over Ezenwa just before the World Cup. To counter Uzoho's lack of experience, Rohr detailed a goalkeeper coach to prepare Uzoho but did nothing of that sort for the locally-based Ezenwa. The point here is that Afelokhai will be nothing but training fodder in this upcoming match. It will take a miracle for Afelokhai to be between the posts in South Africa. That is as certain as day and night.

Therefore, the real choice here is between Rohr's current No. 2 Ikechukwu Ezenwa and Daniel Akpeyi who has the match fitness advantage that Coach Rohr has often put forward as a principle that he uses in selecting players. Thus, the Gernot Rohr's decision has to be about sticking with his conservative decision to use the next player in rank (Ezenwa) or to give the reins to the guy who is match fit (Akpeyi). What gives? We will see in South Africa.

Tuesday, October 16, 2018

Nigeria Takes A Step Into AFCON 2019

Nigeria's 3-2 win over Libya in Sfax, Tunisia means that Nigeria is virtually into the 2019 African Cup of Nations finals with just a win to spare. With a home game looming against Seychelles it will take a miracle to deny Nigeria. In fact, Nigeria can get to the final even before that home game.

In Sfax, Nigeria was clearly the better team in the opening half with ball possession that mystified the Libyans for the opening half hour. By the 70th minute, Nigeria had possessed the ball for more than 60% of the game. Although, Libya fought back gamely in the second half as Nigeria sought to protect its early 2-1 lead, Nigeria struck back to win 3-2 after conceding a Libyan equalizer.

Nigeria has to show that it can consistently play as it did in that opening half when Libya was completely outclassed and every Nigerian player was having an excellent day, bar the goalkeeper. The attacking play was especially dangerous with Ighalo presenting monumental problems for Libya and Musa and Iwobi playing really well. It looked then like Nigeria was about to feast on the Libyans until Nigeria took its foot off the domination, allowing the Libyans to feverishly comeback into the game. Until then, all the Libyans could provide was rough house play that threatened to put several players on the injury list.

Ultimately, Nigeria now has to think about wrapping this up in South Africa in the coming weeks. That is definitely possible. That this team has now found scoring much easier than it did a few months ago is testimony to the insertion of Iwobi's vision in the middle, the speed upfront, and the sudden invigoration of Ighalo in this last two games. That, if it is to continue, bodes well for this team not only in the coming qualifier in South Africa but next summer at the AFCON itself.

Below is my rating of the players:

Francis Uzoho (23) -- 6.0 -- He was untested by Libya for more than half hour from the start but looked uncomfortable when called upon thereafter. He gave up more rebounds than a wall does and one of those led to Libya equalizing before Ighalo rescued Nigeria. Fortunately, Libya was not much of danger to Nigeria in the opening half and in the second, Nigeria defended with all its might.

Ola Aina (21) -- 6.5 -- Aina has the talent but sometimes he looks so unsure in this team. Today was another day when his play was not as assured as it should be, although he did have his moments. His weakness in the air nearly cost Nigeria a goal if Ekong did not rush in to concede a corner.

William Ekong (5) --7.0 -- William was the rock in the center defense as always providing a safety net in front of the goalkeeper.

Leon Balogun (6) --7.5 -- Today, Leon showed an improvement over his outing a few days ago in Uyo. He exuded confidence and broke up a few Libyan attacks that came his way. He was the busier center back in this game.

Jamilu Collins (3) -- 7.0 -- There is little doubt that Jamilu has solidified his position as a starter at left back with Idowu now a distant thought. Jamilu is so much assured and is seamless in his play.

Wilfred Ndidi (4) - 7.5 -- Wilfred was as solid as ever, breaking up the attack and his passing much improved.

Oghenekaro Etebo (8) -- 7.2 -- Etebo is clearly the busy bee of the Super Eagles midfield, always around the ball, either winning the ball or distributing. However, on a few occasions late passes almost undid a lot of his good work but he was so dominant in the opening half. Clearly, Etebo is the team's engine room.

Alex Iwobi (18) -- 7.5 -- Alex has brought energy behind the team's attack with his intricate passing. His exchange with Musa for Ighalo's 14th minute goal may be one of Nigeria's best ever goal from open play.

Ahmed Musa (cpt-7) -- 7.5 -- Absolutely fantastic opening half display with his passing, defending and his run. Then his interchange with Iwobi that led to Ighalo scoring was awesome. Also, Musa provided the assist for Ighalo's winner and scored himself from an Ighalo assist after outwitting three Libyan defenders.

Odion Ighalo (9) -- 8.0 -- He provided tireless running at the defense exploring acres of space left by the Libyans. Ighalo was a constant threat especially in the channel down the left in the opening half. His goal in the 14th minute was no less than he deserved and he capped it off with a winner and an assist thereafter.

Samuel Kalu (17) -- 6.2 -- Samuel was inexplicably quiet most of the game, especially in the opening half. This was unlike what we have seen from him in his first three games for Nigeria.

John Ogu (19) -- X - - He was not rated but easily won all his aerial contests and hardly put a foot wrong except for one moment when he lost the ball in a critical spot.

Henry Onyekuru (11) -- X  - Not rated. He had a few opportunities that came to nought.

Semi Ajayi (20) -- X -- Not rated.

Saturday, October 13, 2018

IGHALO Responds with a Hat Trick in Big Win.....

Nigeria 4 Libya 0 in Uyo, Nigeria. That was the score as Nigeria slides past Libya for second place in the African Cup of Nations (AFON) qualifiers. Of course, that was not the only headline from this game. The big one, in fact, is Odion Ighalo completing a hat trick. It was a surprise given his anemic goal scoring for the national team and the fact that his position as the starting striker was possibly under threat. His hat trick was the first three-goal day for a Nigerian national team player since Oduamadi’s three against the hapless Tahiti at the Confederations Cup in Belo Horizonte in 2013.

But it was not just about Ighalo. In fact, he benefitted from the enterprising display by Alex Iwobi who was invigorating as the most advanced midfielder centrally. It was Iwobi’s magnificent pass, cutting out multiple defenders that presented Ighalo with the opportunity. Iwobi was all over the field and his play was notable but as much as it was the difference maker in the second half, in the first he was at times uncertain of his new responsibilities.

The Libyans were not pushovers and though they gave up four goals the second game on Tuesday in Tunisia will not be a piece of cake. In fact, for a few occasions after Nigeria went ahead from the penalty spot, the Libyans did ask questions of the Nigerian team. Those questions were abundant in the game, but the Libyans did not always them. Instead, they are questions that must be asked of the Nigeria team and its players by fans, never mind the big win.  The most important is when would the Nigerian team be settled to the point that its football is seamless? Why didn’t the midfield take the game by the scruff until in the second half when the second goal had demoralized the Libyans? They are likely more.

It may well sound as if it is asking for too much. After all, Nigeria won big. But the point is that this team has enormous potential to do so much damage in the continent. We saw a glimpse today but there is so much promise.

Here is how the players rate, from 4-10 with 10 being the highest possible rating and 6 being average (ratings are a bit soft today).

Francis Uzoho (23) – 7.0 – He had little to do but pulled off at least one superior save in the opening half. For the rest of the game he saved superbly without giving up rebounds, which was a bane in his early career displays.

Abdullahi Shehu (12) – x – was not rated before he was off injured.

Jamilu Collins (3) – 7.2 -- What a marvelous first half display when going forward. In one instant, he took the great decision in lifting the ball beyond the goalie after a long 60-yard run but was denied by the bar. In the second half, however, he faded and did little going forward.

William Ekong (5) – 7.2 – As always, he was the heart of the defense covering up for errors made by others. Although he was cautioned for a desperate holding foul, it was the best that he could do in such circumstance with the attacker speeding alone towards goal.

Leon Balogun (6) – 6.5 – He had a largely quiet day. His passing out of the defense can be poor as shown, again, in this game. However, such passes did not prove costly today. Beyond those, he had a steady display.

Wilfred Ndidi (4) – 7.2 – Ndidi was good in the middle and was surprisingly eager to make several attempts at goal even though those attempts were widely off the mark.

Oghenekaro Etebo (8) – 7.5 – Etebo was very busy in the middle providing an outlet for the defenders. However, he has to get rid of the ball in a timely fashion instead of being caught repeatedly by the opponent and having the whistle as the saving grace. He ended up with having an attempt come off the post.

Alex Iwobi (18) – 8.5 –My man of the match. His passes were often creative and dangerous. Although the stats will have him with just an assist but if Ighalo had been clinical, it would have been more. His assist was remarkable with multiple Libyan defenders frozen out in one pass and Ighalo suddenly presented with just the goalkeeper to beat.

Ahmed Musa (7) – 6.5 – Ahmed Musa clearly seems more comfortable in the middle as the striker. Unfortunately, he was stuck out wide again and he was quiet until the spaces appeared in the second half as the Libyans streamed forward in search of a goal. He ended up providing an assist before being substituted.

Samuel Kalu (17) – 7.5 – This player is as nimble and as fast as any other that Nigeria has ever produced. Yet, he is stunningly individualistic. Yes, he finally had his goal but there were some decisions in both halves that would leave you shaking your head.

Odion Ighalo (9) – 8.0 – As they say “Three goals no be beans.” Ighalo’s hat trick definitely will be long remembered but he possibly could have had more if he was more clinical. Today, there is no doubt, he delivered! His second goal from iwobi’s assist was so well taken and so unlike the Ighalo of the past.

Ola Aina (21) – 7.0 – Ola came in early for injured Shehu and did reasonably well, especially defensively.  Although, it must be stated that he started in shaky mood, reacting slowly to passes but he ended up playing quite well.

Isaac Success (13) – X – Did not rate him but it is notably that he was stuck out wide when Onyekuru came into the game until the last two minutes or so.

Henry Onyekuru (11) – X – Not rated but had two opportunities in 10 minutes of play. He failed to convert those two but ended up picking out Kalu for a great goal .

Monday, October 8, 2018

Is Gernot Rohr Done with Rebuilding and Now Consolidating?

Nigeria's manager, Gernot Rohr, repeatedly informed the world that his team was one of the youngest, on average, at the 2018 World Cup. He touted that perspective before, at, and then after the World Cup. Rohr used it to suggest a reason why his team did not go beyond the group phase in Russia. But the reality is that Nigerians have previously experienced better and such an excuse should be taken with a dose of doubt. Gernot Rohr may not have gone past the Group phase at the World Cup but such an excuse will find him packing his bag out of Nigeria if the team fails to qualify for the 2019 African Cup of Nations in Cameroon.

Thus, instead of touting a perspective that leans on rebuilding, he has to demonstrate that his team is now beyond that or that it, at least, is transitioning to the consolidation phase in building a strong Nigerian team capable of becoming African champion again. Consolidation does not mean absence of new players but it does require a team playing with experience, confidence and a sense of urgency. That can be observed in two key areas: personnel and team strategy.

Team Personnel
Notably, team personnel has taken at least one major hit. Gernot Rohr has not received any favors from Victor Moses who chose to retire at his prime.Victor Moses was not an ordinary player on the Nigerian team. In fact, he had been for a while, the heart and soul of the team. It was on his shoulders that Nigeria became African champion in 2013 when his singular effort railroaded an obstinate Ethiopian team in a crucial group game that opened the road to the quarter finals. In the qualifiers for the 2018 World Cup, Victor Moses was again the driving force as the team qualified with a game to spare. That Moses would retire from international duty right after the World Cup is a huge blow.

But without Victor Moses and without the recuperating skipper Mikel Obi, there still should be no excuses for Rohr. He has now been on this job for 21 games and three years (2016, 2017, and 2018). This is the time to have a settled team, a team ready to win, and a team that should lean on its experience. That experience can be found among the on-field leaders of the team including at central defense, Wilfred Ndidi in the middle, and out wide with both Musa and Simon Moses. Even goalkeeper Francis Uzoho has now amassed reasonable experience at the World Cup and in the games leading to it (See Table 1 for data on team experience among the often used players in bold).

That Gernot Rohr continues to look for a reliable striker, three years into his appointment as national manager, is all on him. His decision to stick with Odion Ighalo since he was appointed manager cannot be blamed on a lack of talented Nigerian footballers. There are several Nigerian players who have delivered goals at the club level and they were available to be called up by the manager.

Three years on, Nigeria continues to search for a pure play maker in the middle. That cannot be blamed on a lack of talent in a country where players of all abilities emerge regularly. If Rohr cannot find a reliable player at that position that is also on him and no one else.

However, the suggestion that Nigeria should change its team based on the performance of Nigerian players in Europe is a recipe for disaster. That simply assumes an unending phase of team rebuilding based on the concept of a pick up game. Historically, performance at a club in Europe does not assure similar performance at the national team level because of several factors that include different tactics, variation in player confidence, relationship with others in a different team, and much more. Players are not robots, they are subject to human vagaries.

Moreover and as is, national team training days are severely limited by FIFA rules and yet managers must find the time in such scarcity of training time to install tactics. To now do so by introducing new faces each time a player or players do well in Europe will be ridiculous.

Nigeria should now be moving into a consolidation phase of team building which requires stability in team personnel with introduction of significant new contributors on rare and absolutely needed occasions. That should be the way to build on team strength and chemistry rather than to rebuild and rebuild eternally.

The bottom line is that the excuses of rebuilding are no longer compelling. Rohr has to deliver in these two important games coming up against Libya within the next week. Any misstep definitely condemns Gernot Rohr to service elsewhere beyond the borders of Nigeria. These two games are indeed the major tests for Rohr. If he passes, he stays but if he fails, he packs his bags. Those are the likely outcomes.

Team Strategy
Gernot Rohr is conservative at the core and his coaching in Africa has largely depended on a vision of building a stealthy team that soaks up pressure and attacks quickly to surprise the opponent. This was his usual game plan as manager in Burkina Faso, Niger Republic, and in Gabon. It made sense then because those teams were usually underdogs against the giants in the continent. But does it make sense for Nigeria? Many would say no. However, Rohr used it to huge effects during the World Cup qualifiers against Cameroon. His preferred formation in this approach is usually a 4-5-0-1 (The zero added to stress the gap between the most advanced player and the rest) in ball recovery mode but a 4-4-1-1 or 4-2-3-1 with the ball. In this piece, I focus solely on base formations and do not go into specific tactics as those vary based on opponent tendencies.

Rohr's insistence in playing in the formations described above collapsed like a pack of cards when he met favored teams in the international friendlies before the World Cup. In the opening half in a friendly against England, Nigeria looked pedestrian. The change to three at the back and adding additional personnel in the middle (3-5-2 and/or 3-5-1-1 attacking and 5-3-1 defending) in the second half of that game created an entirely different result. Suddenly, Nigeria competed. Yet, it isn't a formation that Rohr favors.

The data in Table 2 and Figures 1 an 2 demonstrate outcomes from the use of a three-man and the four-man defense. Overall, Rohr has managed 21 games played by Nigeria but the game v Togo is not included in this dataset because the defensive formation was not witnessed. We calculate the use of 4-man defense in a total of 16 games including the opening half of the England (1-2) game. For the 3-man defense, we calculate 5 games including the same England game but in the second half. Importantly, the use of three in the defense has been against theoretically stronger teams but results have been better. The total games then is a theoretical 21 games because a game (v England) is calculated two times.

Comparing the use of the two defensive formations present a problem because it is clear that the three-man defense has been used in much tougher games with four out of five against higher ranked opponents! Yet, its outcomes have largely been better than outcomes using a four-man defense. It presents the flexibility of having five players defend deeply and two advanced forwards when with the ball. With that formation, Nigeria has scored every 50 minutes compared to every 60 minutes in a four-man defense with a lone advanced forward. Unfortunately, this strategy with better outcome has not been used by Rohr against African opposition.

Against Libya, we shall see whether Rohr's tendency to stick with his four-man defense continues.

Thursday, September 13, 2018

Notable Stats After Recent Super Eagles Games.....

International Games in September 2018 -- Nigeria played two international matches in September against Seychelles Islands and Liberia. Here are some statistical nuggets that emerge after those games.


Nigeria's often-vilified goalkeeper, Daniel Akpeyi, has now played 10 games for the national team but is yet to keep a goal out in each of those 10 games. This is an infamous statistic that appears to support the fan backlash against Akpeyi. His current per game rate for conceding goals is at 1.25 per game.

Samuel Kalu debuted as an "A" team starter in a competitive match to join a list of nine players to do so for Nigeria in the last 10 years. The most recent player to do so is Anthony Nwakaeme against Algeria in a World Cup qualifier 2017.

Odion Ighalo converted a penalty award against Seychelles Islands to break his streak of eight (8) consecutive games without scoring for Nigeria. His goalscoring rate for Nigeria is a pedestrian 0.22 goals per game having scored just five times in 23 games. His penalty goal was his second such goal for Nigeria. His first penalty goal was against Chad in another AFCON qualifier in 2015.

Meanwhile, Kelechi Iheanacho who started off his Nigerian career with 8 goals in his first 14 appearances has now failed to score in his last nine games, a drought which has taken his goal scoring rate to a mere 0.35 goals per game.

Ahmed Musa opened scoring for Nigeria against Seychelles and now has 16 career goals to his credit to go along with his 11 assists in Nigeria's colors.

Kenneth Omeruo's yellow card earned against Seychelles is his 7th in 42 games for Nigeria, which pushes him to 17% likelihood of receiving a caution in any game he plays for Nigeria. This has just passed Onazi Ogenyi's 15% likelihood of a caution per game.

Gernot Rohr debuted six players during the two internationals played this break. That brings the number to 25 players who have debuted for Nigeria under his tenure. This is not a staggering number by any imagination as his rate of debuting players is 1.19 players per game, which trails the likes of Christian Chukwu (1.91) and Sunday Oliseh (1.91) but surpasses Stephen Keshi (1.15) and Clemens Westerhoff (1.03).

Tuesday, September 4, 2018


On September 8, Nigeria plays its most lopsided encounter ever. Opponent? Seychelles in a 2019 African Cup of Nations (AFCON) qualifier in Victoria. Since Nigeria played its first game in 1949, it has never been involved in a mismatch as the Victoria game portends. Thus, the recent statement by Coach Gernot Rohr, that Nigeria cannot afford to lose in Victoria is a major understatement. The fact is that Nigeria must win and by a big margin. Anything else will be considered underwhelming. Already, one of Nigeria's group contenders for a place in the 2019 AFCON finals -- Libya -- has whipped Seychelles 5-1.

This game should not even be a contest. A low-populated archipelago, such as Seychelles, has no chance and for good reasons. Comparing both countries (see Table 1) informs you of all you need to know about the upcoming contest. What is realistic is that this is the game where the likes of Ighalo and Iheanacho should use in filling out their goal scoring statistics. Make no mistake about it. What we should be watching is whether Nigeria can set a new national team record of the largest away win margin. That record is currently 4-0 earned over Sudan in Omdurman in a 2002 World Cup qualifier. by end of the day on September 8 a new away winning margin might be set by the Super Eagles.

Let's just review the data on Table 1. Just under 100,000 people make up Seychelles. Slightly over 50% of them are males and just 36,000 are aged 15-64 years old. We do not have additional stats to indicate those who are footballers but it has to be much less because basketball is more popular in the country than football and obviously we do not expect males over 35 playing for the national team! Moreover, reports in the Nigerian media indicate that the Seychelles team had difficulty getting invited players from the country's 12 premier league clubs to join the national camp. This is the situation as Nigeria's team of fully professional players arrive largely from Europe.

Then take a look at FIFA ranking. Seychelles is number 188, a tad higher than the worst footballing countries in global football. At 188, Seychelles is only better than Djibouti, Eritrea, and Somalia in Africa. But then  think of this -- Eritrea's last game was in 2015 and its last point was in 2011. Somalia? It last earned a point in 2011. How about Djibouti? It has won just one game since 2011. You get the picture? That is the team that Nigeria faces in Victoria!

But let's give Seychelles some credit. Seychelles has certainly upset "Giants" previously. In 2004, Seychelles beat Zimbabwe in an AFCON qualifier 2-1 in Victoria and in 2006, the team upset Zambia with a 1-1 draw away in a 2006 World Cup qualifier. Seychelles will be hoping for a similar result against Nigeria. Even a close loss at home to Nigeria may be celebrated in Victoria. Make no mistake about that and deservedly so but for it to happen will be a monumental surprise and upset.

One thing for sure is that the 10,000 capacity stadium in Victoria will be filled and that will be almost half of the persons who live in the capital city Victoria.