Is Nigeria Africa's Best?

One of the most difficult African football questions is whether Nigeria is Africa’s Best. This question often arises because of the frequency of Nigeria’s representation of Africa at the World, its performance at the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON), and the claim that it is a country brimming with talented players. At one time, an Italian journalist made a claim that Nigeria would have long won the World Cup in the 1990s if Giovanni Trappatoni was Nigeria’s coach. Well, let me attempt to answer the question as best as I can.

The Population Question

There is belief that Nigeria’s population of 208 million and counting, should certainly project it as a dominant footballing country in Africa. After all, every six African one statistically is a Nigerian. With such ratio, one can understand why it often appears that there are significant numbers of upcoming footballers available to the country. Moreover, being dominant at Africa’s youth competitions (U17 and U20) justify the conclusion that such dominance should also occur at the most senior level.

The population argument is tenuous. Beyond the mention of Brazil to support the large population social theory, the point falls on its face when India, China, and Indonesia are added to the debate. None of those three is considered a footballing power. To be sure, beyond Brazil, none of the top 10 most populous countries has won a World Cup. Of course, you may argue that football is not the preferred sport in places like India, Pakistan, and the USA. But how about Russia, Mexico and, of course, Nigeria? So what’s the problem?

It is likely, based on logic, that a large population may provide a pool of significant number of football players in a footballing country. However, because the number of players who can be on the field is limited (among other factors that matter in football), it should not take hundreds of millions for a country to produce 16 lads needed to form a formidable team. That limitation equalizes the playing field for countries with significantly less population size, including those in Africa competing against Nigeria. This is a rudimentary argument, if you ask me, but yet important to dissuade those who may erroneously think that every added million to a population is equivalent to an increase in football ability.

Might It be the Coaches?

Just like the claim that Giovanni Trappatoni would have taken Nigeria to a World Cup win is the assumption that a good coach would assure Nigeria’s domination in Africa. There is little doubt that a good coach is important to a team’s fortune. But consider that the law of normal distribution of population supports the probability that only a few coaches, in the world, can significantly change the fortune of a team. These are super coaches who are outliers in the distribution of all coaches. Nevertheless, even super coaches must have talented players to be successful. In any case, the reality is that winning requires more than a good coach. Over the years, Nigeria has played under reasonably good coaches who may not be the super coaches of this world. Nevertheless, they helped Nigeria win games in Africa just as similar coaches helped other countries win the World Cup.  Thus, it is not a certainty that even the most excellent coaches of the World will assure a World Cup win. What they can assure is probability of positive results but in a particular critical game, they could lose.

How about Football Administrators?

The capability of football administration is certainly one of the most talked about issues concerning Nigeria’s national team. Historically, persistent shoddy administration of the team led to disruption of preparations and concentration. However, in recent years, administrators treat the team with respect and effectiveness. One could argue that among Africa’s teams, the Super Eagles team has been better administered in the last few years. Yet, while this has led to a recent World Cup qualification, it has not led to winning an African championship or winning every game against African competition.

Is it, Perhaps, having players at the Top 5 leagues in Europe?

Although, engaging European football coaches is considered a marker of having a good coach by African teams, increasingly having players based in Europe’s Top 5 leagues have also become a marker of talented players. In recent years, Nigeria has most of its footballers playing outside its borders. But it may sometimes take a back seat to the likes of Senegal and Ghana who often have more eligible players in the Top 5 European leagues – England, Germany, Italy, Spain, and France.  Nigeria, Ghana and Senegal are often favorites at the AFCONs but some teams win the competition without having players in the top 5 European leagues. For instance, the Zambian team that won the Africa Cup in 2012 had only four players playing outside outside Africa and none of those was in the Top 5 league. Their opponent – Ivory Coast – had 11!  In fact, not a single member of that Ivorien squad was playing in Africa, let alone in Ivory Coast. Yet, it was Zambia that took the trophy.

Is it the local league?

There is another school of thought that claims it is about whether your local league is top notch. Essentially, your top players are playing at home in their local league like Spain, England, Germany, and Italy, among others. However, best French, Brazilian, and Argentine players do not play at home but those countries are still regarded among the best teams in the world. Thus, this proposition is illogical, at best, but it persists. France won the 2018 World Cup with key players, except Mbappe, who were not playing in the French Ligue 1. Croatia, the runner up, had just 2 of 23 players playing at home and neither of those two was a starter on the team. There goes the idea that it is the local league. How about winning the AFCON when you have a top local team?  Well, the last four winners are Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, and Zambia. None of those countries has a league that has produced a club to win the African Champions League since the last 15 years! None has ever produced a club that won the less prestigious African Confederations Cup!

So what is it, then?

If none of the arguments explains what it takes to dominate Africa and make a significant impact in the world, what then does? First, let us be clear that Nigeria has not been meek in its performance. Winning three AFCONs is not a small feat. Getting to that point took effort and some things had to work. Nigeria is a country that could not be counted among the top 10 in Africa when it began playing in the late 1940s. Though Nigeria was at the Olympics in 1968 and won the Africa Games soccer in 1973, Nigeria never came unto its own until the mid-1970s. That it was a foreign coach – Father Tiko – that was responsible is instructive but for a surprising reason. The difference was his tenure. He was there in his third year when he took the country to a third place finish at the AFCON. Others, including local coaches had shorter tenures. Also, he benefitted from a newly introduced national league that better prepared players with frequent high level contests that produced two top teams in the continent – Rangers and Shooting Stars. When the country won the Cup in 1980, it still had dominant clubs in Africa and it was playing at home. In 1994, it won again but with a team that begun to depend on European-based players, a situation that bred confidence even in games against teams outside Africa.

The reality is that the factors are multiple and none, independently, assures a trophy. Working integratively, however, they can assure consistency at the top. But that situation cannot assure consistency only for Nigeria. There are other teams that can earn similar consistency, simultaneously with Nigeria, if they do they right things. Thus, trophies cannot be dominated solely by Nigeria. What Nigeria can reasonably hope for is consistent performance at the top. That isn’t far from what is happening today.

But surely, Nigeria can and should be able to win more in the continent by strengthening multiple areas. One of those is a consistently stable administrative policy of full support for the national team and less interference, a more stable coaching regime and team, among others. If, somewhat, Nigeria appoints one of the very few super coaches that could be the icing on the cake. It could lead to far more consistency but Nigeria regularly sweeping the AFCON cannot be expected because the competition is and will always be stiff. Yes, Egypt may have swept the AFCON for three straight competitions but that is a lucky blip that is a rare occurrence and cannot be guaranteed.