Why the Summer AFCON is a Referendum on Rohr's Tenure

The 2019 Summer African Cup for Nations (AFCON) will most certainly be a referendum on Coach Gernot Rohr's tenure as manager of the national team of Nigeria. Here we use the word referendum as an imaginary given that it is the NFF that will ultimately make the decision. Nonetheless, the larger public is watching and as their emotion tilts from one end to the other, so also will be the emotion of the decision makers. Make no mistake about that.

Rohr is currently in his fourth year in charge. He began his tenure in 2016 and his fourth straight year as manager ranks him, already, fifth longest-serving manager tied with two others (Ember and Chukwu) out of 29 managers who have managed at least five Nigerian games consecutively. Rohr is ahead of Otto Gloria and Shuaibu Amodu. Gloria won the AFCON and Amodu qualified the team to the World Cup two times and finished in the medal rounds of the AFCON. The only managers ahead of Rohr's longevity are Westerhoff, Tiko, Keshi, and Les Courtier. Thus, there is little doubt that Rohr is now one of the longest serving Nigerian managers.

 Gernot Rohr*

Rohr is currently in his fourth year in charge. He began his tenure in 2016 and his fourth straight year as manager ranks him, already, fifth longest-serving manager tied with two others (Ember and Chukwu) out of 29 managers who have managed at least five Nigerian games consecutively. Rohr is ahead of Otto Gloria and Shuaibu Amodu. Gloria won the AFCON and Amodu qualified the team to the World Cup two times and finished in the medal rounds of the AFCON. The only managers ahead of Rohr's longevity are Westerhoff, Tiko, Keshi, and Les Courtier. Thus, there is little doubt that Rohr is now one of the longest serving Nigerian managers.

Clemens Westerhoff*

Setting Markers and Winning Trophies Are The Real Tests
The remarkable thing about three of the managers ahead of Rohr is that each of them blazed remarkable trails. Both Keshi and Westerhoff won the AFCON and took the national team to the last 16 at a World Cup. Neither of those feats have been achieved by Rohr. Second, Tiko was the manager that placed Nigeria as a consistent top performer in the continent.

Stephen Keshi*

In essence, the questioning of Rohr is located in his inability to set down markers on the road to a trophy, medal, or memorable finish among the major tournament teams. It is what is lacking in his tenure. Beyond those markers, Rohr has confidently put up the best efficiency of any Nigerian coach that has coached the team for at least four years (see Table 1). This efficiency record of 0.630 is ahead of the often revered Westerhoff, Keshi, and Tiko. None of those trio has achieved that level of efficiency. What it means is that Rohr has built a consistently successful Nigerian team in terms of match performance.

But what the above also says about Rohr is that he should now be on a short leash, achieve at the AFCON (medal round) or face replacement. That, ultimately, is why the trio of Westerhoff, Keshi, and Tiko are revered. The excuse that Rohr had the youngest squad at the last World Cup cannot possibly be a compelling excuse at the Summer AFCON. Ranked number 3 out of 24 teams at the AFCON, Nigeria certainly is one of the favorites and it is on Rohr's shoulder that the performance shall be evaluated. He can begin to set the marker by finishing in the medal round to earn himself a reprieve.

"Father" TIKO*

There are those, and I am one of them, who have argued that Nigeria's opportunities increase as a manager's tenure increases. Both Keshi and Westerhoff won the AFCON and reached the Last 16 of the World Cup on the back of long tenures. Of course, that is not always true. There are aberrations. For instance, Gloria won the AFCON within a year of his appointment. But bear in mind he did it with Nigeria hosting the event. He was the only one that did it at home. Rohr is now going into his fourth year. Rohr gets a pass because, in spite of the long tenure, he has not managed a full AFCON qualifying series where the team failed. Now, he has eventually arrived at an AFCON tournament and the opportunity for laying down a marker presents itself.

Approach

Rohr has brought to Nigeria a pragmatic approach to the game. Yet, it has not always led to wins but it certainly has led to some groans. Coming to Nigeria from coaching stints at both Burkina Faso and Gabon, there was always a question on how his approach would look like. At both Gabon and Burkina Faso, pragmatism was important because it presented opportunity for success where such opportunities are narrow and rare thanks to the limitation in talent pool in both places. But Nigeria is different, with a large pool of talented, exciting and attack-minded talent, it was possible that Rohr would be far more attack-minded like Samson Siasia had been with the team and with a load of opportunities for success. However, that has not been the case.  Rohr has stuck to the way his teams played in Gabon and Burkina Faso. Safety first. While it has led to some inspiring counters with pacy players and an early qualification to the 2018 World Cup, it has not offered much beyond that. Yet, it has brought consistency in results.

His team building has been extremely conservative. He is slow to introduce new players to the core of his squad. His tendency is to show extreme loyalty to existing members of his playing squad and to offer new players tenuous opportunities. He dismisses home-based players by a wave of hand and preconceived evaluations based on geography that denies individual differences and qualities. For him, stereotyping where a good place can be found is a mantra.

Then his gamesmanship is to always act the underdog. At the World Cup, it was how young and inexperienced his team is. At this AFCON, he is already claiming that Nigeria is not one of the favorites citing the FIFA rankings. Yet, Nigeria is ranked 3 out of 24 AFCON teams on that FIFA log. By his own logic, Nigeria then should be a favorite based on that ranking. It is all well and good when this underdog characterization is used to motivate the team to fight against perceived superior opponents but it is a double edged sword that can also be used as an excuse that the opponent is better. Choose which one appeals to you better but it may not matter if this team fails to medal after July 19 in Egypt.

Rohr's approach to the game and his approach to personnel decisions and gamesmanship clearly characterize him as a man who is risk averse. Perhaps, it may well be holding back his team and possibilities in a continent where a more explosive offensive display may instill far more belief in this team and fear in opponents. It is an explosiveness that not only provides opportunity for setting down a marker but opportunities to win the trophy itself and match both Westerhoff and Keshi.

Challenges of AFCON -- 

Nonetheless, the reality is that Rohr's risk aversion, for the first time, confronts the difficulties of African opposition in a tough African tournament. It is a rough and tumble competition where there is little space left for the opposition to maintain any comfort on the ball. Rohr's consistent performance against African position should come in handy but the AFCON will not be a piece of cake.

There are two teams that are definitely above all 24 teams -- Senegal and Morocco. Senegal has pace, physicality, and technical ability. However, it does not mean that they cannot be beaten. Egypt as the host team will have the advantage of massive home support that can often be rabid. Nevertheless, Nigeria and the likes of Ghana and Tunisia will have their chances and must count as favorites along with those already mentioned. Nevertheless, with a huge pool of teams this is an open tournament. Make no mistake about it.

July 19 Cometh
When the AFCON final is concluded July 19 in Cairo, Rohr's fate would have been stamped. Place among the medal log or out in search of the next employment. That will be the reality then. The efficiency scores will matter very little because the benchmarks for him are not managers whose records are tied on high efficiency scores but managers whose legacy are based on setting down markers and kissing trophies.

*Photos courtesy of Footballlive.ng, Footballghana.com, africanewzs.com, and sportsvillagesquare.com