Nigeria's Road to the 2022 World Cup .....

The method that the Confederation for African Football (CAF) has set up for the 2022 World Cup tournament qualification assures a difficult path for every African team. The first hurdle on that difficult road will be the group games. The next and final hurdle will be the draw for the play off between the group champions at a later date. Of course, this assures that Africa will arrive in Qatar with five teams that have passed very difficult tests.

Of the ten groups made known today, the most difficult group is surely Group D based on the most recent FIFA ranks (December 19). Group D has the highest average rank when compared to the others (see Table 1) and the two top ranked teams in that group have the smallest differential of -8 (see Table 3) signifying a tough battle between the top two teams. Top teams with differential of -27 or below are most likely to face grim battles to finish top. The differential of -27 is an arbitrary figure based on differential between Senegal (Ranked #20) and the lowest team that may give it difficulty (Ghana, ranked #47). Nonetheless, ranks change each month during the qualifiers and, thus, being the strongest group on paper today does not necessarily mean that Group D will be the strongest when the qualification comes to an end. Form changes and so will be fortunes. An eye-test ranking (see Table 2) is also introduced because the FIFA rankings are based on a 4-year period, which means that they often do not indicate a team's most current form. The eye test is simply based on my subjective assessment of the groups.

In any case, Nigeria starts as favorite in Group C with not as much to worry against opponents -- Cape Verde, Central African Republic, and Liberia. Tables 1, 2, and 3 affirm that view. Let us examine the state of Nigeria's team.

The State of the Nigerian Team

For Nigeria, the journey clearly looks easy, at least at this stage, when compared to the 2018 qualifiers. Of course, Nigeria starts off as the top team in its group based on its No. 3 ranking among all African teams (No. 44 in overall FIFA ranking). But that ranking is based on a four-year period of performance. On recent performances, Cape Verde and Central African Republic will certainly offer some challenge.

Nigeria has been at the top of its game since it came off a disappointing 2018 World Cup and a shock 0-2 loss to Madagascar at the 2019 Cup of African Nations (AFCON). The team has largely been rebuilt with three key retirements -- skipper Mikel Obi, Victor Moses, and Jude Ighalo. Their replacements, while young, appear to have solid futures ahead of them. Joseph Aribo steps in for Mikel Obi, for Victor Moses steps in Samuel Chukwueze, and Victor Osimhen steps in for Jude Ighalo. But while the future promises much, at present it would be a sham to claim that these replacements have done much better than those they replaced. Aribo has shown a penchant for goals from his midfield position but he is far from Mikel in terms of controlling the game and assuring that Nigeria has its fair share of possession and importantly Aribo has not produced the creativity of a Mikel Obi. Chukwueze has the ability to dominate games but yet he has not shown it for Nigeria as much as Victor Moses frequently did in Nigeria's colors. As for Osimhen, one must acknowledge that his play so far has been more assuring than Ighalo's. But Ighalo was the top scorer going into the 2019 AFCON and at the AFCON itself. While that isn't an easy accomplishment to match, Osimhen's explosive display against Lesotho may have been the most dominant performance of any striker in a Nigerian game, bar none. That is not a light statement to make when one realizes that this includes the best of Rashidi Yekini and the best of Thompson Usiyan.

Beyond the replacements for the retirees, there are other changes that give Nigeria hope. A major one is the emergence of credible wide players, especially Samuel Kalu who was not at the 2018 World Cup and was not fully fit at the 2019 AFCON and then Alex Iwobi who is working his way to being a dominant creative midfielder for Nigeria. Kalu joins Moses Simon, veteran Ahmed Musa, and youngster Chukwueze as options at both wide positions. Kalu can impose his will on a game and that will be needed periodically in the group Nigeria finds itself. Iwobi remains inconsistent and is turnover prone but his best moments are game changers. No one, on the Nigerian team, has Iwobi's vision and creativity but he must provide those consistently for Nigeria to get to the World Cup.

Nigeria's Achilles heel, however, remains an inconsistent defense that has found it difficult to maintain a clean sheet in 8 of the last 9 games. This is compounded by the fact that the team's starting goalkeeper, Francis Uzoho, is likely going to be absent for key games going by prognosis from his injury. The coaching crew has a major challenge building this defense up to the level of a premier defense needed to be successful in the qualifiers, particularly if and when Nigeria gets to the playoff round.

Group Opponents
Cape Verde has come down a bit from the last time Nigeria tied 0-0 with the Cape Verdeans and the team that reached the quarter finals of the 2013 AFCON. At one time, Cape Verde was ranked among the top 10 teams in Africa. Its biggest recent result is holding Cameroon 0-0 in Yaounde in a 2021 AFCON qualifier and then a 2-1 home win over Togo in an international friendly.

Although the Central African Republic (CAR) has recently performed well, it is yet to meet Nigeria at the senior level. Its biggest win remains a 2-0 beating of Algeria in an AFCON qualifier back in 2012. However, the team was one of the worst in the world but has risen to a respectable No. 109. Although not considered a strong opposition to Nigeria, CAR drew 0-0 with Guinea at home and beat Burundi 2-0 in 2019. Nigeria did not have it easy against those two teams during the same period.

Of the three group opponents, Nigeria has played far more frequently against Liberia. In all those games, Nigeria was clearly the better team except in the run-up to the 2002 World Cup when a George Weah-led Liberia nearly reached the World Cup finals ahead of Nigeria. However, this Liberian team is nothing close to the 2002 team. It is a poor team that is now ranked No. 152 in the world. However, underrate them at your own peril. In their most recent international, they shocked Egypt 1-0 in Cairo.

Conclusion
Nigeria should qualify easily from this group. The other teams should be overmatched. The real test for Nigeria will likely be at the play off.