STATS: BREAKING DOWN PLAYERS DEBUTED BY ROHR

Our interest here is to examine 39 players debuted by Gernot Rohr since he took over the reins as manager of the national team of Nigeria (see Table 1). We use this player data set to examine the following questions

1. Where are these players drawn from?

2. Stats on success rate of players debuted under Rohr.

3. Does a player's abode predict his staying power with the national team? 

It is important to note the parameters of data used in this report. It includes only players debuted by Rohr. For instance, William Ekong and Ikechukwu Ezenwa are not included because they debuted before Rohr was appointed. Ikouwen Udotin, who played a game under Rohr, was excluded because his debut was under another manager. Then some players who debuted under Rohr such as Stephen Odey and Alhassan Ibrahim have only games under Rohr included in the analysis even though they played additional B international games under a different manager.

Over all, Gernot Rohr appointed in 2016 has debuted 39 players heralded by Kayode Olanrenwaju who played his first game for Nigeria at the senior level in March of 2017 against Senegal (see Table 1). Although Rohr failed to debut a player in the year in which he was appointed, he has gone on to debut at least 7 annually with the most being 16 that he trotted out in 2017. Thus far in 2020, he has given six players their first international games.

Table 1: Players Debuted Under Manager Gernot Rohr

2017
	NAME		Opponent		NAME	Opponent
1	Kayoe Olanrenwaju		Senegal (F)	9	Alhassan Ibrahim	Togo (F)
2	Isaac Success		Senegal (F)	10	Victor Osimhen	Togo (F)
3	Dele Alampasu		Togo (F)	11	Sikiru Olatunbosun	Togo (F)
4	Tyrone Ebuehi		Togo (F)	12	Mikel Agu	Togo (F)
5	Chiedozie Awaziem		Togo (F)	13	Ola Aina	Zambia  (WCQ)
6	Stephen Odey		Togo (F)	14	Anthony Nwaekeme	Algeria (WCQ)
7	Uche Agbo		Togo (F)	15	Francis Uzoho	Argentina (F)
8	Henry Onyekuru		Togo (F)	16	Brian Idowu	Argentina (F)
2018
17	Junior Ajayi		Serbia (F)	22	Jamilu Collins	Liberia (F)
18	Junior Lokosa		Congo DR (F)	23	Ebube Duru	Liberia (F)
19	Simeon Nwankwo		Congo DR (F)	24	Kelechi Nwakali	Liberia (F)
20	Semi Ajayi	Seychelles (ANCQ)		25	Sunday Adetunji	Liberia (F)
21	Samuel Kalu	Seychelles (ANCQ)		26	Samuel Chukwueze	Uganda (F)
2019
27	Paul Onuachu	Seychelles (ANCQ)		30	Josh Maja	Ukraine (F)
28	Dennis Bournaventure		Ukraine (F)	31	Maduka Okoye	Brazil (F)
29	Joseph Aribo		Ukraine (F)	32	Peter Olayinka	Brazil (F)
				33	Ndifreke Effiong	Egypt (F)
2020
34	Kevin Akpoguma		Algeria (F)	38	Chidera Ejike	Tunisia (F)
35	Zaidi Sanusi		Algeria (F)	39	Cyriel Dessers	Tunisia (F)
36	Frank Onyeka		Algeria (F)
37	Samson Tijani		Algeria (F)

Bolded = Debuted in competitive game

Where Do these Players Come From?

Although, debuted players have come from clubs located in 14 different countries in Europe beside Nigeria, seven countries provided multiple players. One player invited from abroad was from Egypt (See Table 2). The bulk of invitees have come from Portugal, Belgium, Germany, and England.  

Table 2: Where Debuted Players Come From

Country	Number
Nigeria	7
Belgium	6
Portugal	5
Germany	4
England	3
Austria	2
Holland	2
Russia	2
8 Others*	1

*Czech Rep., Denmark, Egypt, France, Israel, Italy, Scotland, & Spain.  

Successful Debutants

We point to 14 of Rohr's invitees as becoming successful (see Table 3). Success is defined as players who have gone on to attract significant minutes and have played in no less than 8 games under the coach. This definition is based on the fact that several invitees were discarded after just a few games. Remarkably, none of the players invited from local Nigerian teams played in more than a single game underreported the manager. In fact only one of them played in more than a half of a football game -- Junior Lokosa who was invited from Kano Pillars.

The most successful player debuted under the manager -- Chiedozie Awaziem -- has featured in 45% (19 of 42) of games managed by Gernot Rohr.

Table 3: Debutants Who Went on to Stick!

#	PLAYER	COUNTRY	DEBUT	Mins./Debut	GAMES	MINUTES
1	Chiedozie AWAZIEM	Portugal	2017	90	19	1276
2	Ola AINA	England	2017	13	17	1094
3	Francis UZOHO	Portugal	2017	45	16	1368
4	Samuel KALU	France	2018	84	15	792
5	Jamilu COLLINS	Germany	2018	45	16	1285
6	Samuel CHUKWUEZE	Spain	2018	45	15	987
7	Semi AJAYI	England	2018	18	13	783
8	Henry ONYEKURU	Belgium	2017	33	13	379
9	Victor OSIMHEN	Germany	2017	45	10	505
10	Bryan IDOWU	Russia	2017	45	10	781
11	Tyrone EBUEHI	Holland	2017	45	9	469
12	Paul ONUACHU	Denmark	2019	26	8	338
13	Mikel AGU	Portugal	2017	85	8	380
14	Joseph ARIBO	Scotland	2019	90	4	340

 

Player Abode Related to Success under Rohr

We then examined the relationship between the players' playing location at debut and success with the national team under Manager Rohr. Table 4 provides the data. Here we group the players into three groups based on emerging debate surrounding the manager's pattern of player invitations. The three groups are Nigerian-based players, Players developed in Nigeria but based abroad, and Players developed Abroad. We find remarkable statistics.

Figure 1: Average minutes earned per player by Origin Identification

Nigerian-based players recorded an average of 23.57 minutes in their debut game which was usually an international friendly. The next lowest minutes at debut was for players developed abroad (30.22 minutes). Players developed in Nigeria but based abroad recorded the highest average minutes at debut (42.87). However, over the total number of appearances, locally-based player stats were the same 23.57 minutes because each played in only one game (Figure 2). This was a stark difference when compared to the other two groups. The players developed abroad recorded the highest total average minutes of 329.77 compared to 296.52 minutes each for players developed in Nigeria but based abroad.

Figure 2: Average Total Minutes Debut and After

            

So What Does This Mean?

While one may argue that locally-based players have been given perfunctory opportunities to play for the national team given the fact that none of the players from this group played in more than one game, it is possible that they may not have fit the bill. However, when one considers that some others who did not exactly impress at debut were re-called, the conclusion above may not be tenable. Nevertheless, the official note is that such players subsequently moved abroad and the manager sought to allow them settle into their clubs. None of those points is quite convincing but they may have legs and require further examination. 

Ultimately, decisions on players' minutes are solely those of the manager. In such a case, Rohr has made some good decisions with certain players. Although, just 14 of the invited 39 have become core parts of his team. These include Uzoho, Samuel Kalu, Collins, Osimhen, Aribo, and Chukwueze. That is remarkable. In fact, while we have not listed Akpoguma and Zaidu who recently debuted, the two are likely to join that core group in the future.