Youth Football: Flying Eagles to Super Eagles. . . .
A few days ago, we provided data showing number of players who progress from Nigeria's U17 to the full national team -- Super Eagles. In this piece, we use similar methods to show the progression from U20 Flying Eagles to the Super Eagles. As should be expected, the results are better from the U20 level to the full national team.
Key to Understanding the Method and Results
Note that only U20 squads that participated at the FIFA World Youth Cup (WYC) have been used for this analysis. In essence, this covers 10 squads from 1983 until 2013. With the 2013 squad, we do not conduct all analyses because this squad is recent and more of its players are expected to do more at the Super Eagles level in a few years to come.
New data provided in this piece compares the U17 and U20 squads in terms of average number of players from each squad that progress to the Super Eagles. This is provided in Figure 1. While just about four (4) players from a U17 squad are likely to play a game at the Super Eagles level, there will be as many as eight (8) players per squad that will do the same from a U20 squad. Approximately two players from each U17 squad may make it to at least 10 games at the most senior level compared to about three players from the U20 level.
Data From U20 Squads
Table 1 shows data from the ten U20 squads that Nigeria used in previous World Youth Cups. Nigeria has played in two championship games (1989 and 2005) of the WYC but impact at the senior national team level for players who played in the 1989 and 2005 tournaments are different. Players from the 2005 tournament had perhaps the most impact on the senior national team than any other U20 squad. The 1989 squad had less impact than should be expected. Only one player from that squad -- Mutiu Adepoju -- went on to appear in a large number of games at the most senior level (52). The 1985 squad, which reached the semi final of the WYC, had the most players to appear in at least one Super Eagles game and also had players who went on to impact the Super Eagles more than the 1989 silver winning squad. The least impactful was the 2009 squad which has only one player to appear in more than 10 games for the Super Eagles (Gbolahan Salami/12 games).
Table 2 shows players who rank in the Top Ten of U20 players with most appearances at the Super Eagles level. Here, we see that the squads of 1983, 2005, and 2007 have two players each. The surprise is the 2007 squad, which reached the WYC quarter finals in Canada. Though the 1983 squad was eliminated at the group stage in Mexico, there was a deliberate policy under Coach Adegboye Onigbinde to build a new Super Eagles using players from that U20 squad which accounts for how well the players show up in the data here. By building the team around several youngsters, Coach Onigbinde was able to reach the Cup of Africa Nations (CAN) finals in 1984. That policy has not been used since.
The 2015 U20 Team
Going by the data, it is safe to predict that about eight (8) players from Nigeria's U20 squad to the 2015 World Youth Cup will eventually play at least a game for the Super Eagles. In fact, more could end up playing for the Super Eagles if the squad does very well in the WYC. Already, two members of the squad -- Moses Simon and Kingsley Sokari -- have achieved that feat before the start of the WYC. Others are expected to follow after the WYC. If Nigeria is to re-adopt the policy used when Onigbinde was national coach, then one should expect perhaps over 10 players from the 2015 WYC make it to the full national team in the near future.
Key to Understanding the Method and Results
Note that only U20 squads that participated at the FIFA World Youth Cup (WYC) have been used for this analysis. In essence, this covers 10 squads from 1983 until 2013. With the 2013 squad, we do not conduct all analyses because this squad is recent and more of its players are expected to do more at the Super Eagles level in a few years to come.
New data provided in this piece compares the U17 and U20 squads in terms of average number of players from each squad that progress to the Super Eagles. This is provided in Figure 1. While just about four (4) players from a U17 squad are likely to play a game at the Super Eagles level, there will be as many as eight (8) players per squad that will do the same from a U20 squad. Approximately two players from each U17 squad may make it to at least 10 games at the most senior level compared to about three players from the U20 level.
Data From U20 Squads
Table 1 shows data from the ten U20 squads that Nigeria used in previous World Youth Cups. Nigeria has played in two championship games (1989 and 2005) of the WYC but impact at the senior national team level for players who played in the 1989 and 2005 tournaments are different. Players from the 2005 tournament had perhaps the most impact on the senior national team than any other U20 squad. The 1989 squad had less impact than should be expected. Only one player from that squad -- Mutiu Adepoju -- went on to appear in a large number of games at the most senior level (52). The 1985 squad, which reached the semi final of the WYC, had the most players to appear in at least one Super Eagles game and also had players who went on to impact the Super Eagles more than the 1989 silver winning squad. The least impactful was the 2009 squad which has only one player to appear in more than 10 games for the Super Eagles (Gbolahan Salami/12 games).
Table 2 shows players who rank in the Top Ten of U20 players with most appearances at the Super Eagles level. Here, we see that the squads of 1983, 2005, and 2007 have two players each. The surprise is the 2007 squad, which reached the WYC quarter finals in Canada. Though the 1983 squad was eliminated at the group stage in Mexico, there was a deliberate policy under Coach Adegboye Onigbinde to build a new Super Eagles using players from that U20 squad which accounts for how well the players show up in the data here. By building the team around several youngsters, Coach Onigbinde was able to reach the Cup of Africa Nations (CAN) finals in 1984. That policy has not been used since.
The 2015 U20 Team
Going by the data, it is safe to predict that about eight (8) players from Nigeria's U20 squad to the 2015 World Youth Cup will eventually play at least a game for the Super Eagles. In fact, more could end up playing for the Super Eagles if the squad does very well in the WYC. Already, two members of the squad -- Moses Simon and Kingsley Sokari -- have achieved that feat before the start of the WYC. Others are expected to follow after the WYC. If Nigeria is to re-adopt the policy used when Onigbinde was national coach, then one should expect perhaps over 10 players from the 2015 WYC make it to the full national team in the near future.
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