Monday, April 16, 2018

2018 v 1994: Let's Compare the teams......

Most Nigerians agree that the 1994 World Cup team may be the country's best. It remains the baseline by which every other Nigeria team is measured. Thus, the greatness of the 2018 team will be determined by how well it compares to 1994. In this piece, I look at several indices of comparison that include average age of the starting team, record in the World Cup qualifiers, average number of appearances for team starters, disciplinary record, and then a qualitative evaluation of teams.

Quantitative Comparison
Statistically, the 2018 team may be slightly better than the heralded 1994 version. This sounds like sacrilege. However, the numbers tell the tale. Of course, the 2018 team has not achieved any thing yet compared to the 1994 team that was ranked #5 in the world and was two minutes from a World Cup quarter final place.

The 2018 team completed the World Cup qualifiers without a loss, never mind the technical loss assigned within FIFA boardroom over the use of an ineligible player in the last game of the qualifiers. That loss-less campaign leads to an efficiency of 0.75 which is better than 0.71 achieved by the 1994 team (see Table 1). Moreover, the coach for the 2018 team, Gernot Rohr, has an efficiency score of 0.73 compared to Westerhoff's 0.66, in the year before the World Cup (Table 2). Sounds shocking but yet true. Both teams, however, are comparable on disciplinary issues with the 1994 team accumulating 13 cautions in its qualifying games and the 2018 team accumulating 14 (Table 1).

The 2018 team has been named among the youngest teams at the upcoming World Cup in Russia. In our comparison of starters, the 2018 team averages 25.82 years compared to the 26.36 years average for the 1994 team (Table 3). But that does not quite mean that the 2018 team is inexperienced. The statistical difference is actually less than 1.00 years. The 2018 team has seven of its starters at 25 years or older which is exactly the same for the 1994 team. However, only Mikel Obi is over 30 years old from the 2018 team compared to the 1994 team, which had two players over 30 years old (Rufai and Yekini) among starters. Nevertheless, experience is not solely based on age. It can also be based on number of appearances.

The 1994 team averaged 28.46 appearances before its first World Cup game while the 2018 team averages 25.46 appearances as of today. In essence, this year's team is a bit inexperienced based on number of appearances with two likely starters (Uzoho and Idowu) under five appearances each.

Qualitative Comparison
In contrast to the quantitative measures above, it appears that the 1994 team is overwhelmingly better than the 2018 version when qualitative measures are discussed. How? Well, one thing for sure is the 1994 team had been built from about 2-3 years earlier and it was clearly the best team in Africa and its dominance was denoted by its #5 ranking in the world just before the World Cup. One cannot state the same for the 2018 team which has missed the last two African Cup for Nations (AFCON) and is not considered the best in Africa by any stretch of the imagination. It is currently ranked #47 in the world and #6 in Africa. These measures, including ranking, are considered qualitative given the fact that ranking and perception of the best team can be subjective, albeit reasonable.

The 1994 team, generally, played out of a 4-4-2 with the second striker slightly withdrawn to look like a 4-4-1-1 at times. That is different from the preferred 4-5-1 or 4-2-3-1 used by the current team under Rohr. It seems that each formation suits the personnel used by the managers. The 1994 team was a better attacking team whereas the current team prefers to attack in a counter.

A discussion of personnel has to begin with the goalkeeping position. What a huge difference between 1994 and now! The  1994 team had an assured goalkeeper who was very experienced.  In fact, he had the most experience among the team's starters. The opposite is now the case where the probable starting goalkeeper, Uzoho, is among players with least number of appearances. Therefore, comparing the 1994 goalkeeper Rufai to the 2018 version in Francis Uzoho is like comparing a quality product to a generic one.

Although such huge experience gap is absent defensively, the central defense for 1994 appears to be stronger in all aspects of the game compared to the 2018 central defensive pairing. However, Emenalo at left back for the 1994 team was not as proficient as any of the players who could possibly start at left back for the current team.

In midfield, the 1994 team was loaded with both wide players -- Finidi George and Emmanuel Amuneke -- extremely dangerous and Okocha at attacking mid and Oliseh defensively being among Nigeria's finest ever midfield players in their respective positions. Of course, Victor Moses on the current team does not take a back seat to any of the 1994 wide players, on the other wide position it is difficult to state the same. In the middle, the 2018 attacking player is skipper Mikel Obi who is a different player from Okocha but is equally as effective. Defensively, however, Onazi is not on a similar pedestal as Oliseh but Ndidi certainly is getting there, if only he improves his passes.

The 2018 team presents only one pure forward whereas the 1994 team used both Amokachi and Yekini. Both are demonstratively better than Jude Ighalo, who is the forward on the current team. Yekini was a prolific scorer and Ighalo can never be thought in the same vein.

It seems to me that the 1994 team is better when measured on qualitative terms. Quantitatively, one cannot make the same claim. Thus, it might just be that the 2018 team demonstrates the adage that a team is far greater than the sum of its individual parts. For sure, the results in Russia will affirm whether the current team can be considered Nigeria's best ever team but it is not easy to dismiss the current team as non-starters. The team deserves its place at the World Cup and the results should go a long way in its claim for a position as Nigeria's finest.

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